California Ballot Returns Lag as Governor’s Race Struggles to Energize Voters

By Joe W. Bowers Jr. | California Black Media

Black voters in California, like other voter groups, have been returning mail ballots at a slow pace as the state heads toward the June 2 primary election for governor, a race that has not yet generated the same level of voter excitement as some past statewide contests.

Early ballot return data compiled by Political Data Intelligence, or PDI, a California voter data and analytics firm used by campaigns and political organizations, showed that most California voters had not returned their ballots during the May 4 to May 22 reporting period. As of May 22, Black voters remained slightly underrepresented in early ballot returns compared with their share of statewide registration.

As of May 22, more than 1.82 million ballots had been returned statewide, representing about 7.9% turnout. That means more than 90% of registered voters had not yet returned ballots as of the reporting date. The rate was slightly below the 8.38% turnout recorded at the same point during California’s 2022 primary election.

Black voters accounted for about 4% of registered voters statewide but roughly 3% of ballots returned. White and “Other” voters represented nearly 69% of returned ballots, compared with about 18% Latino voters and 11% Asian voters. The data reflects ballots returned as of May 22 and does not indicate final turnout.

Older Californians continued to make up a large share of early ballot returns. Voters age 65 and older represented roughly 54% of ballots returned statewide, while voters ages 18 to 34 represented about 10%. Like racial and ethnic categories, the age figures reflect early returns only, not the final composition of the electorate.

The PDI data also showed Black turnout rates trailing 2022 levels. Black turnout dropped from 7.5% during the comparable period in the 2022 primary to 6.1% in 2026. Democratic Black turnout declined from 8.9% to 5.4%, while Black male turnout fell from 8.1% to 5.9% and Black female turnout declined from 8.0% to 5.7%.

Earlier in the campaign, California Democratic Party officials used polling to press the case for Democratic consolidation, arguing that a crowded field could divide the vote and potentially allow Republican candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco to finish among the top two vote-getters in the primary.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates receiving the highest number of votes advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.

Polling released by the California Democratic Party during a May media briefing showed Hilton, a former political commentator and policy adviser, leading the field at 22%, followed closely by Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former California attorney general and U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services, at 21%. Democrat Tom Steyer, an environmental activist and former presidential candidate, stood at 15%, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco received 10% and former Orange County Congressmember Democrat Katie Porter drew 7%.

Black voter preferences in the poll suggested a different pattern than the broader statewide results, though the Black voter sample was relatively small.

Among Black voters surveyed, undecided voters represented the largest share at 24.2%, suggesting many Black voters had not settled on a candidate during the polling period.

The poll was conducted by EVITARUS Research, a Los Angeles-based firm that describes itself as California’s only Black- and Latina-led full-service public opinion research company. Researchers surveyed 1,200 likely California voters between May 14 and May 16. Black voters represented about 7% of the weighted sample.

During the press conference, CADEM Chair Rusty Hicks said Democratic voters appeared to be consolidating after earlier concerns that vote splitting could leave Democrats out of the general election.

“Certainly, two months ago there was great concern … about getting locked out of the general election and seeing two Republicans in the general election,” Hicks said.

Compared with the same stage of California’s 2022 primary election, the Democratic share of ballots returned dropped from 52% to 42%, while the Republican share increased from 27% to 37%.

According to Public Policy Institute of California data, 73% of African American likely voters identify as Democrats, while 5% identify as Republicans.

The race has also drawn Black Democratic political leadership, elected officials and former officeholders to endorsing multiple candidates.

Steyer has assembled one of the largest visible blocs of endorsements from Black California elected officials. His supporters include Sen. Lola Smallwood-Cuevas (D-Los Angeles); Assemblymembers Mia Bonta (D-Alameda); California Legislative Black Caucus Vice Chair Isaac Bryan (D-Ladera Heights); Tina McKinnor (D-Inglewood); Corey Jackson (D-(Moreno Valley) and LaShae Sharp-Collins (D-San Diego); along with former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown.

“In this new day of American politics, California can’t follow the old paths and expect new results,” Smallwood-Cuevas said in endorsing Steyer. “Tom Steyer understands the roots of extreme wealth and corporate power and has the courage to stand shoulder to shoulder with working families to hold economic royalists accountable.”

Bryan said Steyer would “fight for working people” and “push back against the federal government.”

Becerra’s Black elected supporters include Long Beach mayor Rex Richardson; Assemblymembers Rhodesia Ransom (D-Stockton) and Lori Wilson (D-Suisun City).

Wilson said Solano County families “deserve steady, thoughtful leadership,” calling Becerra “a stable, competent, and trusted leader who understands California and the challenges our communities face.”

Congressmember Maxine Waters, (D-CA-43), is recommending Becerra for governor in her sample ballot distributed to voters ahead of the primary.

Becerra’s endorsement effort also drew attention after Congressmember Jasmine Crockett (D-TX-30) appeared in Los Angeles on his behalf. In response, Steyer supporter McKinnor posted on social media: “This ain’t Texas. This is Los Angeles. Please go work on your own seat respectfully. Texas needs a lot of help … thank you.”

State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, the race’s highest-profile Black candidate, has received endorsements from former Congressmember and Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee, California Legislative Black Caucus Chair Sen. Akilah Weber Pierson (D-San Diego), and former Assemblymember Cheryl Brown.

“I am proud to endorse Tony Thurmond for Governor,” Lee said. “Tony is a true leader, a champion for working people, and for bold progressive change.”

Californians can still vote by mail or cast ballots in person ahead of the June 2 primary. Same-day voter registration remains available through Election Day. Polls will be open June 2 from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.