Your guide to men’s basketball this March: Contenders, stars, storylines to watch

Every year, emails about office bracket pools start circulating and people who have casually watched college basketball — or in some cases not watched at all — begin to panic. Where do they even start to fill out those brackets?

We’re here to say: relax. Let us catch you up.

The past five months of men’s college basketball have been filled with incredible wins, surprising defeats, devastating injuries, young stars and party crashers who could bust brackets.

Teams such as Nebraska have enjoyed a remarkable turnaround. And teams such as Auburn, a Final Four participant a season ago, might need a miracle to earn an NCAA tournament bid. Meanwhile, a collection of elite teenagers have been the headliners, not only because of their excellence but because they could be young stars for NBA teams by the end of the calendar year.

We know it’s a lot to digest. So, ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf are short-listing the storylines, players, coaches, moments and possibilities you need to know ahead of March Madness.

The top tier of teams is incredibly dominant

This Sunday, 68 teams will hear their names called as participants in the NCAA tournament — and the ones at the top of the food chain have a significant edge over the rest.

At the apex is Duke, the No. 1 team in America. The Blue Devils are led by national player of the year favorite Cameron Boozer and coach of the year contender Jon Scheyer. They already have wins over Florida and Michigan, two of the other three projected 1-seeds in the latest Bracketology. And they’re on pace to finish the 2025-26 season with the highest NET rating on KenPom in nearly 30 years. The Blue Devils could win it all, though recent injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II could make that road bumpier.

Michigan is no slouch, either. The Wolverines’ only losses have come to Duke — on a neutral court — and a Wisconsin team that made 15 3-pointers against them. They’re in a stratosphere few other teams have been able to crack this season.

For its part, Arizona has as much depth as any team in the country. The Wildcats join Duke and Michigan as the only teams ranked in the top eight of both offensive and defensive efficiency. They also won their first 23 games of the campaign.

UConn seemed solidly in this group until a loss in the regular-season finale at Marquette cost the Huskies a 1-seed and increased doubt about their ability to win a third title in four years.

Taking UConn’s place on the top line? Florida, which is on a 10-win streak, similar to the late momentum of last season’s squad on its way to the national title. Per BartTorvik, Duke is the only team in America that has been better than Florida during that stretch.

The next tier of teams includes the likes of Illinois, Iowa State, Houston and Purdue — but none of them is anywhere near those listed above. — Medcalf

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This is arguably the best freshman class of all time

The high school class of 2025 was billed as a potentially generational group upon entering the season — and it has somehow exceeded those expectations.

The best player in the country is a freshman: Duke’s Cameron Boozer, son of former Blue Devils standout and NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer. The biggest threat for most of the season to Boozer’s status as the top player also is a freshman: BYU‘s AJ Dybantsa. The best point guard in the country is arguably a freshman as well: Arkansas‘ Darius Acuff Jr. Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler is an All-America candidate, as was North Carolina frosh Caleb Wilson, before his season-ending thumb injury.

Arizona, another projected 1-seed, starts three first-year players: Brayden Burries, Koa Peat and Ivan Kharchenkov. Final Four hopeful Houston starts two: Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr. Title contender UConn has one too: Braylon Mullins. Then there’s Tennessee‘s Nate Ament, Louisville‘s Mikel Brown Jr. and Stanford‘s Ebuka Okorie, who have been among the most productive players in conference play.

We haven’t even begun talking about the elite crop of former European pros classified as freshmen, including Virginia‘s Thijs De Ridder and Washington‘s nightly 20-10 threat Hannes Steinbach. Then there’s Darryn Peterson, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft who has been a game changer for Kansas when he has been on the floor.

To further emphasize the dominance of first-year players this season, this might be all you need to know: Six of the 15 players on the final Wooden Award ballot are freshmen. — Borzello

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Can Cameron Boozer take Duke further than Cooper Flagg did?

Flagg had one of the most remarkable seasons of the one-and-done era, winning national player of the year by a landslide and taking Duke to the Final Four. The idea that another Duke freshman could top Flagg’s feats seemed unlikely at the start of the campaign. But Flagg and the 2024-25 Blue Devils ran into real Final Four competition from veteran teams Auburn, Houston and eventual national champion Florida; Boozer and the 2025-26 Blue Devils won’t face that same level of experience.

Boozer might also be better than Flagg: Boozer has a higher offensive rating on KenPom, is averaging more points (22.6 vs. 19.2) and rebounds (10.0 vs. 7.5), and is a better 3-point shooter. According to EvanMiya, Boozer is having the best season in college basketball since at least 2009-10, surpassing Zach Edey‘s second consecutive Wooden Award season in 2023-24 (25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game).

Boozer and Flagg also are very different players. Flagg is an explosive athlete who could will his team to wins. Boozer is an elite playmaker who always seems to make the right play and control the game. Boozer also has the advantage of a supporting cast anchored by last year’s reserves, as Isaiah Evans, Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster have each made significant strides in their games (though Ngongba and Foster are now contending with injuries).

This season’s Duke squad is better defensively — and more potent in the paint too. Boozer already has led the Blue Devils through tough tests. There certainly is a path — and perhaps an expectation — to cutting down the nets in Indianapolis. — Medcalf

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Florida has a legitimate chance to defend its crown

It might not be a stretch to say the Gators played better over the final month of the regular season than they did during the same span of last season’s national championship run. They’ve run roughshod over the SEC, winning the outright title with games to spare.

Todd Golden has one of the elite frontcourts in the country in Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu, all holdovers from last season. Chinyelu has made the biggest jump of the trio and is arguably the best defensive player in the country as well as a double-double threat every night.

Three months ago, Florida looked nothing like a title contender. The Gators were 5-4 after a loss to UConn at Madison Square Garden in December. The biggest change since then has come on the perimeter, as Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee have figured out how to coexist in the backcourt while Urban Klavzar and Isaiah Brown have added some pop off the bench. The Gators have taken care of the ball better and have shot markedly better from 3.

Their defense also has improved from a year ago, particularly when it comes to protecting the rim and controlling the glass.

It all means that, much like last season, Florida has surged into the top tier of title contenders during the final stretch. — Borzello

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UConn is looking for its third title in four years

The Huskies’ quest for a three-peat last season fell disappointingly short, though a different version of a dynasty is still very much within reach.

This iteration of UConn looks a lot more like the 2023 and 2024 title-winning teams than last season’s team did. The Huskies are led by transfer point guard Silas Demary Jr., a two-way player with size who has transformed this team at both ends of the floor. He is surrounded by a trio of shotmakers in veteran stalwart Alex Karaban, left-handed sniper Solo Ball and freshman Braylon Mullins. Down low, Tarris Reed Jr. can be as dominant as any big man in the country. There’s depth, there’s experience and the Huskies have hit their stride offensively.

UConn hasn’t been as dominant as the other title contenders at the top of the rankings — recent losses to Creighton and at Marquette have knocked back some of the team’s momentum — but the Huskies own neutral-site wins over Florida and Illinois, a victory at Kansas and a 32-point home demolition of St. John’s.

With the championship credentials of Dan Hurley and his staff on the sideline, UConn is squarely in the top tier or two of teams that can raise the trophy in Indianapolis. — Borzello

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Will the Big Ten end its national championship drought?

It has come close several times — most recently in 2024, when Purdue lost to UConn in the title game — but the Big Ten hasn’t won a men’s basketball national title since Michigan State did so in 2000, the longest drought for a high-major conference.

There’s a real chance that could end this season. The Big Ten has several potential threats — Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue and Nebraska — but at the top of the list are the Wolverines. Their romp through the Players Era Festival during Feast Week should give the conference hope with regard to how they could perform on short rest against quality opposition. Away wins versus Michigan State, Purdue and Illinois should ease concerns about how the Wolverines will play away from home too.

They’re elite offensively, they’re elite defensively and they have as much size as any team in the country.

There’s still an argument to be made that the Illini, the Spartans, the Boilermakers and even the Cornhuskers could reach the Final Four. Illinois has the nation’s best offense. Michigan State has Tom Izzo, Jeremy Fears Jr. and a top-five defense. Purdue has a veteran core that has won a lot of games together. And Nebraska combines high-volume 3-point shooting with the Big Ten’s best defense in conference play.

There’s a strong chance at least one Big Ten team will be playing in Indianapolis come early April. — Borzello

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Miami (Ohio) is the only unbeaten team still standing

Who knew a perfect regular season could be so eventful? The RedHawks’ athletic director has sparred with Bruce Pearl on X. And their coach, Travis Steele, had to pay to replace a DJ’s speaker after a midgame tirade, all after promising to wear a Speedo if his team entered Selection Sunday without a loss. Miami is just the 21st team in NCAA history to finish a regular season unbeaten, joining 2020-21 Gonzaga, 2014-15 Kentucky, 2013-14 Wichita State and 2003-04 Saint Joseph’s as the only ones to do so this century.

Despite Miami’s flawless record, however, it isn’t a lock for the NCAA tournament without a Mid-American tournament title — the same MAC tournament title it missed out on in a thriller against Ohio last season. During the NCAA’s mock selection exercise in Indianapolis last month, the RedHawks made the field even when they lost in the MAC tournament. But they have a NET ranking in the 50s and a sub-275 strength of schedule, per KenPom. Their position as a possible at-large if they lose a game this week has been the subject of debate around the country.

A run through this year’s MAC tournament would silence the debate and place Miami among some of the great teams in college basketball history. A loss, however, would make the RedHawks arguably the top storyline right up to Selection Sunday. — Medcalf

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Injuries are set to impact the NCAA tournament

This is, unfortunately, a common theme among top teams.

Teams with players who aren’t expected to return this season will be worth monitoring on Selection Sunday to see how those absences impact them from a seeding perspective. Two that fall into that bucket are Texas Tech without All-America forward JT Toppin and BYU without star guard Richie Saunders. Both players suffered season-ending ACL injuries, and their teams’ ceilings are now significantly lower.

Michigan backup guard L.J. Cason also suffered a season-ending ACL injury, which places additional pressure on Elliot Cadeau to be more consistent through the grind of a potential six games in the NCAA tournament. Villanova starting forward Matt Hodge is another player lost for the season, a factor that could affect the Wildcats’ NCAA tournament profile as a whole. In a crushing blow, North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson joined this group late last week after breaking his right thumb while dunking — days after getting cleared for individual workouts following the left hand fracture he suffered in February.

Meanwhile, there are several high-level players whose timeline to return is more vague but who will significantly boost their teams once back. Gonzaga forward Braden Huff suffered a left knee injury in January, with an initial recovery timetable of four to six weeks; the most recent update had him still on crutches.

Then there are Tennessee’s Nate Ament and Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr., star freshmen who have missed recent games. Ament suffered a leg injury on Feb. 28 against Alabama and subsequently missed games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Brown sat out eight games with a back injury in December and January, and he didn’t play against Syracuse or Miami last week due to back issues.

Duke also has been hit with injury uncertainty on the heels of the regular-season finale against North Carolina, with Blue Devils coach Jon Scheyer saying afterward he doesn’t expect to have either Caleb Foster or Patrick Ngongba II available for the ACC tournament.

One player to watch from the group of bubble teams is SMU guard B.J. Edwards, who has missed three straight games with an ankle injury. The selection committee ideally would like to hear positive news when considering the Mustangs over other bubble teams. — Borzello

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How much will Darryn Peterson play in March?

The short answer is: No one knows.

There were more concerns about Peterson’s availability earlier in the season, when he missed 11 games due to multiple injuries and cramping and failed to contribute meaningful minutes in other contests due to the same issues. When he pulled himself out of the Jayhawks’ win at Oklahoma State on Feb. 18, Bill Self called him out and seemed frustrated with his availability issues.

Peterson went on to log 30-plus minutes in four consecutive games entering the weekend.

That might be the problem, though. The Jayhawks are still dealing with chemistry issues because they haven’t played enough games together. Kansas will first want to know if Peterson will be in action throughout the NCAA tournament.

More importantly, who are the Jayhawks when he’s out on the floor? During the string of games during which he played at least 30 minutes, they finished 1-3. They were the 64th-best team in America and had an adjusted offensive efficiency ranked 176th, per BartTorvik, during that stretch. Per EvanMiya, they’re minus-1.2 points worse per 100 possessions with Peterson on the court — stark comparison to fellow freshmen Dybantsa (plus-10.2) and Boozer (plus-20.0) for BYU and Duke, respectively.

The truth is that Kansas hasn’t been a consistently great team with the potential No. 1 pick on the floor. He’s also the Jayhawks’ most talented player. If he and his teammates can find a rhythm, and if he’s available to play, he could carry them to big wins. — Medcalf

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Nebraska, Vanderbilt, more surprise teams will try to keep winning

Two of the last remaining unbeaten teams of the season weren’t even picked in the top 10 of their respective conferences in preseason polls. Nebraska was picked to finish 14th in the Big Ten, then opened the season on a 20-0 run. Vanderbilt was picked to finish 11th in the SEC, then started 16-0.

The Cornhuskers are still in the mix for a 3-seed on Selection Sunday. Fred Hoiberg struck gold in the transfer portal with Pryce Sandfort and found a gem of a freshman in Braden Frager. And the Commodores have had a little bit of a rockier time since losing their first game of the season, but Mark Byington has one of the nation’s best backcourts in Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles.

Myron addressed Miami (Ohio) earlier, but Saint Louis also has been in and around the Top 25 during the second half of the season and has a real shot at winning a game in the NCAA tournament.

There’s another Miami worth mentioning, too. Jai Lucas has orchestrated one of the best year-over-year turnarounds in the country with the Hurricanes, tying the program record for regular-season wins in a season with 24. Transfers Tre Donaldson and Malik Reneau form a dynamite inside-outside duo.

Don’t forget about Virginia. The Cavaliers improved to 27-4 overall and 15-3 in the ACC on Saturday after receiving just two total votes in the preseason AP poll. Ryan Odom has done a fantastic job in Year 1 at the helm; this team really guards, has plenty of size and depth, and has eight players who made 20 or more 3s this season.

Other surprises that could continue their surprising momentum this month include Georgia, Utah State and Villanova. — Borzello