2026 NFL free agency grades: Mike Evans, Devin Lloyd

NFL free agency began Monday with the legal negotiating window, but the action started before that. ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players.

To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age, and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?

Follow along as we evaluate and grade each big signing and trade, with the most recent moves at the top. So far, we’ve hit more than 30 deals.

More coverage:

Tracking moves | Top 100 free agents

Jump to a notable deal:

Flott | Paye | Evans | Lloyd | Edwards

Shaheed | Franklin-Myers | Mafe | Oweh | Taylor

Etienne | Robinson | Willis | Linderbaum | Watson

Phillips | Walker | Pierce | Gary | Fitzpatrick

Titans sign CB Cor’Dale Flott

Terms: Three years, $45 million

Grade: C-

Of all the contracts handed out Monday, it was the number on Flott’s deal that took me the most by surprise. Even over Tyler Linderbaum‘s deal with the Raiders.

Prior to free agency. I worked on a new project in which I built a statistical model that uses free agency rankings from multiple media outlets, along with a couple other variables, to predict the contracts for each free agent. And I bring it up because while anecdotally it seemed to perform well, it really missed on Flott. The model forecasted a deal coming in at just under $9 million per year. Flott got $15 million per year.

That doesn’t mean it’s a bad deal. Perhaps the outside world just generally underrated him. And to be fair, Flott’s numbers are more solid than one might think: 1.1 and 1.0 yards per coverage snap allowed in 2024 and 2025, respectively, right around the 1.1 average for an outside corner. His 14% target rate is better than average. Those numbers probably overestimate Flott’s ability, however, because he played opposite Deonte Banks for much of that time. Flott will join Alontae Taylor, who also agreed to terms with the Titans on Monday.

But the outside perception that Flott wasn’t worth this much does matter a little bit. He got real cornerback money, in the neighborhood of Jaylen Watson — who was considered one of the best corners in the class and got $17 million per year from the Rams. And Flott ended up well ahead of Jamel Dean, who earned $12.25 million per year from the Steelers.

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Raiders sign Edge Kwity Paye

Terms: Three years, $48 million

Grade: D+

I knew I was going to be down on Paye’s signing no matter what — and that was before I found out it was going to be at $16 million per year. Paye ranked last in pass rush win rate among all qualifiers at edge, at just 4.5%. That’s a brutal number, especially when combined with a 12th percentile pressure rate. And he performed poorly in both numbers in 2024, too.

Now, in the wake of the Maxx Crosby trade, the Raiders absolutely need pass rush. Paye will join Malcolm Koonce and Tyree Wilson in trying to get after opposing quarterbacks. And I endorse the Raiders going after an edge rusher, by all means! But there were better options.

Paying a few million more per year to sign Boye Mafe would have been several multiples better. Going after K’Lavon Chaisson — maybe on a cheaper contract — would have been better. I’m guessing Paye’s status as a 2021 first-round pick probably contributed to the contract, even if it shouldn’t have.

Las Vegas handed out a lot of money Monday, and this was one spot where it could have put it to better use.

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49ers sign WR Mike Evans

Terms: Three years, up to $60.4 million, with $16.3 million guaranteed

Grade: A-

After seemingly being flush with wide receiver talent not too long ago, the 49ers entered this offseason needing a wideout. They got a good one.

Evans is finally leaving Tampa Bay, heading to San Francisco to join Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy. And while we’re still waiting on all the contract details, the $16.3 million guaranteed makes it seem like they got a good deal. We’ll work under the assumption that’s the one-year cost — which is what matters here.

Evans, 32, is coming off an injury-shortened season that marked the first year he did not reach 1,000 receiving yards. He amassed 368 receiving yards in eight games. If he’s still the same player, he has the potential to be a No. 1 X receiver for Shanahan, adding another dimension to an offense with other veteran playmakers such as Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. The move lets Ricky Pearsall be a complementary second wide receiver as he develops. Jauan Jennings is a free agent.

The big question: Is Evans still the same player? In the limited sample outside of the games he missed because of collarbone and hamstring injuries, there was some drop-off. His yards per route run fell from 2.6 in 2024 to 1.8 in 2025. Against man, that latter number fell to 1.5.

His numbers fell way off across the board in ESPN’s receiver scores — his 91/74/38 open/catch/yards after catch score in 2024 dropped to a 46/38/25 in 2025. Of course, the sample was much smaller, and perhaps his injuries affected him even when he was on the field. Still, given his age, there’s some reason to be worried.

But the 49ers shouldn’t be that worried because of the contract and the upside Evans can deliver. Given how well he played on a per-route basis in 2024, I’d be more than willing to give him $16 million to see if he can put this offense over the top in 2026. By comparison, Evans’ two-year deal with the Bucs in 2024 was, if translated to 2026 dollars, $24.2 million per year. Also, the 49ers’ offense already looked pretty great last season when it was healthy and not playing the Seahawks.

The grade above is working under the assumption this is a one-year and roughly $16 million commitment. If that’s right, this is an easy win for the Niners.

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Panthers sign LB Devin Lloyd

Terms: Three years, $45 million

Grade: B-

The Panthers are filling their need at inside linebacker with the top-ranked player at the position. Lloyd is coming off a great season in which he made the Pro Bowl and was a second-team All-Pro. His run stop win rate ranked in the 58th percentile, but the real reason he’s getting paid is because of the splash plays — five interceptions, seven passes defensed, 16 pressures (second most by an off-ball linebacker), 1.5 sacks and six tackles for loss.

Those are impressive numbers, but I went into free agency thinking I’d be down on Lloyd relative to the market. A year ago, the Jaguars declined Lloyd’s fifth-year option, which seemed like an important data point even with the big plays he made in a contract year.

Second, Lloyd wasn’t an every-down player in Jacksonville last season. He played on just 73% of snaps, including just 54% of third and fourth downs. That last part is absolutely worrying. If the Jaguars weren’t willing to keep him on the field all the time, can he really be worth $15 million per year?

That being said, this deal came in significantly cheaper than I thought it would. At a higher price point, I’d be much more critical. But at $15 million per year — the same amount, even without any adjustment, that Jamien Sherwood signed for last offseason — I can’t take too much issue with it.

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Giants sign TE Isaiah Likely

Terms: Three years for $40 million

Grade: B+

On one hand, it’s not surprising at all that Likely is following John Harbaugh to New York. There’s nothing coaches love more than signing players they used to coach somewhere else. On the other, Likely never really seemed to hit his potential in Baltimore and never passed Mark Andrews on the depth chart.

Likely showed flashes of ability upon entering the league that made people believe in his impending ascendence. Four years in, it still hasn’t happened. Likely is coming off a season in which he recorded 27 receptions for 307 yards over 14 games. Among tight ends with at least 200 routes run, his yards per route run ranked in the 37th percentile and his 16% target rate was in the eighth percentile.

His numbers in ESPN’s receiver scores are a little more encouraging: Likely posted an above-average 58 open score, which suggests the low target rate isn’t a pure indictment of his ability to get open. And he was likely hampered by the foot injury that cost him the first three games of last season.

He also was better in 2024 — 1.8 yards per route run (78th percentile) along with a 64 open score. That gives me more confidence in him going forward. Still, optimism about Likely requires some belief beyond the box score that he’ll ascend, which can happen — tight ends often bloom late. And the contract reflects the uncertainty here in a way that I think makes sense.

Likely should become the Giants’ starter and be an upgrade over incumbent Theo Johnson, who recorded the worst overall score among tight ends in ESPN’s receiver scores and led tight ends with a 9.5% drop rate.

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Saints sign G David Edwards

Terms: Four years, $61 million

Grade: A-

The Saints had a hole at guard and filled it with arguably the best one to hit free agency this year — and at a reasonable contract.

Last season in Buffalo, Edwards ranked in the 83rd percentile in pass block win rate and 86th percentile in run block win rate among guards. That is all you need to justify this contract and then some. But the fact that Edwards, who will turn 29 this month, put up similar numbers in 2024 (76th percentile in both metrics) should bolster our confidence even more.

At just over $15 million per year, I think this deal is a bit of a bargain. Compare that to last season, when Aaron Banks was in the 41st and 29th percentiles in the two win rates and scored what would be a $20.8 million per year deal in the 2026 cap environment. Or Will Fries in the 56th and 83rd percentile, respectively, over five games in 2023 earning today’s equivalent of $18.9 million per year. In relation to that, Edwards’ deal looks like great.

He should take over the Saints’ left guard spot, which was occupied by Trevor Penning (traded midseason) and Dillon Radunz, a free agent. The Saints needed to improve their offensive line: They ranked 29th and 23rd in pass block and run block win rate, respectively. Edwards should help.

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Seahawks re-sign WR Rashid Shaheed

Terms: Three years, $51 million

Grade: B-

I was a big fan of the Seahawks’ deal for Shaheed at the trade deadline, giving Seattle an A- at the time for acquiring the deep threat to complement Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Did the move work? Well, they won the Super Bowl … but I think they were probably disappointed in the production they got out of Shaheed on offense: just 1.1 yards per route run (and 0.9 against man coverage) on 18 receptions over 12 games, including the playoffs. Were the Seahawks better at passing with him on the field at least? No, in fact they were dramatically worse (0.17 EPA per dropback without him compared to 0.0 with him) though that mostly shows the fickle nature of on-off splits and truly shows how much quarterback Sam Darnold regressed in the second half of the regular season.

It is possible that Shaheed’s field stretching helped Seattle in ways an advanced box score doesn’t see, but I don’t think I would necessarily give that benefit of the doubt. Still, it doesn’t mean he won’t produce going forward. Perhaps he’ll be more integrated with the offense with an offseason and training camp under his belt.

On paper, Shaheed should help open up Seattle’s offense and should produce more than he did last season because he has in the past. He averaged 1.8 yards per route run for New Orleans in 2025 prior to the trade and, even counting his time in Seattle, recorded a well-above-average 67 open score in ESPN’s receiver scores.

He’s also one of the best returners in football: He averaged 4.6 punt return yards over expected last season (fifth best among players with at least 10 punt returns) and 10.3 kick return yards over expected (third best). He scored one punt return touchdown and two kick return touchdowns, including a 95-yard touchdown return on the Seahawks’ first play of the postseason against the 49ers.

I’m torn. The fact that the contract came in a hair lower than I was expecting makes this slightly more palatable. Ultimately, I would have looked elsewhere — perhaps Romeo Doubs? — but I can understand why Seattle opted to keep Shaheed around.

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Browns sign G Zion Johnson

Terms: Three years, $49.5 million

Grade: C+

It’s no secret the Browns need offensive linemen. And on the first day of free agency, they landed Johnson, a 2022 first-round pick.

Johnson grew into a strong run blocker over the course of his rookie contract, a big reason he commanded this contract. That came through in the numbers. He recorded a run block win rate in the 98th percentile last season, up from the 33rd percentile just a year ago.

So given the run blocking and the fact that Johnson is in the prime of his career at age 26, what are the drawbacks? Pass protection — at least last season.

Johnson was in just the fifth percentile in pass block win rate last season, an alarming number that ought to give Cleveland pause. It will need Johnson to protect whichever quarterback it tries to develop next season, be it Shedeur Sanders or someone else. But the Chargers’ rotating left tackles after Rashawn Slater‘s injury might have hurt Johnson’s numbers; his pass block win rate was better than average in 2024. But the low ranking is hard to ignore and a reason I would have rather signed David Edwards on this contract instead.

That said: this price point — $16.5 million per year — is not that bad, especially compared last year, when worse players (such as Will Fries or Aaron Banks) made more money. This is right on the C+/B- fringe for me.

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Titans sign DT John Franklin-Myers

Terms: Three years, $63 million

Grade: B+

There is something amusing about all the former Jets and Giants reuniting in Tennessee to play for Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll again, in hopes that it goes better the second time around.

And that’s particularly true for Franklin-Myers, whose career really took off after Saleh and the Jets traded him to Denver two years ago. After that trade, the Broncos moved Franklin-Myers from edge rusher who could play inside to defensive tackle who would moonlight outside. And his numbers relative to other defensive tackles really stood out.

Over the past two seasons with the Broncos, Franklin-Myers rated in the 87th percentile in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle and 94th percentile in pressure rate among qualifying interior linemen. He recorded 14.5 sacks in those two seasons. His run stop win rate was in the 47th percentile. It’s fair to wonder whether Franklin-Myers benefited from the rest of the defense around him, but those are impressive numbers regardless.

If the Titans plan to play Franklin-Myers mostly as defensive tackle, which is a question given how Saleh deployed him in the past, then he would make an incredibly formidable interior pass-rushing duo with All-Pro Jeffery Simmons, who was probably the best defensive tackle in the league last season.

Franklin-Myers was always going to get a haul given the limitations of the rest of the free agent defensive tackle market. But I think he could have cost even more. If we compare to past defensive tackle contracts and adjust those to the 2026 cap environment, Franklin-Myers comes in well behind Kenny Clark‘s deal with the Packers in 2024 ($25.2 million per year in 2026 dollars) or Milton Williams‘ contract last year with the Patriots ($28 million). I think it’s worth it. He and Simmons could be an elite tandem.

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Bengals sign edge Boye Mafe

Terms: Three years for $60 million, per NFL Network

Grade: A-

With Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai walking out the door, the Bengals badly needed some pass-rush help. They got it in the form of Mafe, probably my favorite edge rusher in this year’s free agent class.

Mafe has always been something of a win-rate darling. On a new team with more playing time, he has a chance to show the sacks can follow the underlying metrics (as they did in 2023, when he had nine sacks).

Though Mafe was more of a rotational player last season than he has been in the past — he started only four games and played only 50% of the snaps — his pass rush win rate at edge ranked in the 86th percentile. It was not a fluke, he was in the 67th percentile in his breakout 2023 season.

And he does more than rush the passer. He’s a plus-defender against the run, too, finishing in the 80th percentile in run stop win rate at edge.

At $20 million per year, Mafe is coming in well behind Jaelan Phillips and Odafe Oweh, who agreed to deals for $30 million and $25 million per year, respectively, earlier Monday. And yet if you told me a year from now that Mafe had the best year of the three, I would hardly be surprised. I think Mafe will go a long way to helping the Bengals get their defense back on track … and on a decent contract, too.

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Commanders sign edge Odafe Oweh

Terms: Four years, $100 million

Grade: B

The Commanders needed to add pass rush juice at edge. And they ideally needed to do it with a player in his prime, rather than an aging veteran like Von Miller a year ago. Oweh checks both boxes. The former Ravens and Chargers edge rusher was one of the top free agents in this year’s class — and he got paid like it.

Oweh failed to record a sack while he was with Baltimore last season, then notched 7.5 after being traded to the Chargers. That split is mostly noise because his underlying numbers were good all year. He ranked in the 80th percentile in pass rush win rate among edge rushers and in the 82nd percentile in pressure rate. Plus, he recorded 10 sacks with the Ravens the year before. He’s good — he just took time to develop.

This price ($25 million per year) seems right in line with where Oweh’s market should be. If we translate past contracts for edge rushers to the 2026 cap environment, it’s comparable in average per year to Harold Landry III‘s deal with the Titans in 2022 ($25.3 million in 2026 dollars) or Carl Lawson‘s 2021 deal with the Jets ($24.8 million), per OverTheCap.com. It’s cheaper than Bud Dupree‘s 2021 contract with the Titans ($27.3 million) or Nik Bonitto‘s 2025 extension with the Broncos ($28.6 million).

As poor as last season went for Washington, the team should absolutely be maximizing its current window. With a healthy Jayden Daniels on a rookie contract and lots of cap room entering free agency, the Commanders might as well build up their roster and see how far they can go. Oweh will lead an edge-rushing group that includes Deatrich Wise Jr. — who missed most of last season with a quadriceps injury — and Dorance Armstrong, who tore an ACL last October.

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Titans sign CB Alontae Taylor

Terms: Three years, $60 million

Grade: C-

The Titans are well into their expected spending spree, as they try to use their plethora of cap space to build out a more functional roster as the team enters its second year of the Cam Ward era.

Coach Robert Saleh clearly wanted improved cornerback play, prompting the signing of both Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott. We’ll focus on the former here.

Taylor is coming off a nice season in New Orleans in which he allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap and allowed minus-1 EPA playing primarily as a nickel, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But what scares me is how big of a departure those numbers are from what he posted the two prior seasons, in each of which he allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap and double-digit positive EPA when targeted.

It remains to be seen where the Titans will play Taylor. He has experience both outside and in the slot, though his best play came last season was when he was primarily inside.

At $20 million per year, this contract is not only more than I expected but also $2 million per year more than Jaylen Watson received from the Rams. It is too expensive for a player who does not have a long track record of reliability.

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Saints sign RB Travis Etienne Jr.

Terms: Four years, $52 million

Grade: C-

For the first time in what seems like years, the Saints entered free agency with a bit of cap room to maneuver. They opted for one decent-sized signing in Etienne, but it’s not a move I can endorse.

Etienne entered free agency coming off an improved season in which he recorded 4.3 yards per carry and 44 rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But that came after two consecutive seasons in which Etienne recorded negative rush yards over expected (minus-77 in 2023 and minus-43 in 2024) following a big 2022 campaign.

And although Etienne recorded six receiving touchdowns last season, he had only 36 receptions, and the Jaguars kept him off the field in passing situations. He was active for only 6% of third-and-7-plus plays.

The Saints need improved play from their running backs on running plays. Alvin Kamara recorded minus-95 rush yards over expected and rookie Devin Neal was at minus-29. Etienne should help, but the bigger driver of running-play success is offensive line play. The Saints ranked 23rd in run block win rate and 30th in yards before contact per carry last season.

It remains to be seen whether the Saints will pair Etienne with Kamara, who turns 31 this summer and whose primary skill is in the receiving game, or move on from the veteran. Either way, though Etienne should improve the Saints’ running game, I don’t love this usage of their capital, especially considering his inconsistent history. The Saints could have picked up a different back in the draft or free agency who still would have improved their running game but for less cash.

Still, as with the Chiefs’ signing of Kenneth Walker III, there is a hidden silver lining. This should take the Saints out of the Jeremiyah Love sweepstakes, and that can only be a good thing considering how much of a value mistake it is to draft a running back in the top 10.

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Titans sign WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Terms: Four years, $78 million

Grade: B+

Robinson is going to play for Brian Daboll again, as the Titans signed the former Giants receiver in another move that was highly expected before free agency.

I’m a Robinson believer after last season, part of which he played for Daboll. Robinson underwent a role shift in 2025, and his production skyrocketed. His percentage of plays in the slot dropped from 72% to 52%, his average depth three seconds into a route fell from 8.3 yards to 7.2, and — most telling of all — his air yards per target went up from 4.9 to 8.8.

And Robinson very much delivered, as his yards per route run popped from 1.3 to 2.1 with a 28% target share that was surely inflated due to Malik Nabers tearing an ACL in Week 4 but impressive nonetheless. Robinson recorded a 65 open score in ESPN’s receiver metrics last season, indicating an above-average ability to get open that should yield success in Tennessee.

The Titans got promising play out of rookie Elic Ayomanor last season and have Calvin Ridley on the roster (at least for now). But with or without Ridley, they needed to add receiving talent this offseason and had money to spend. The Titans must work under the assumption that quarterback Cam Ward takes a big step in Year 2 and capitalize on having a QB on a rookie contract. Signing a player such as Robinson fits right in line with that idea.

The contract price might strike some as high, but it was almost perfectly with my projection for Robinson, and I think it is plenty fair given what he showed last season and the fact that he’s in the prime of his career at 25 years old.

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Dolphins sign QB Malik Willis

Terms: Three years, $67.5 million, with $45 million fully guaranteed

Grade: A

Sometimes all the dot-connecting before free agency does foretell a signing. Ever since the Dolphins hired Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan — both from the Packers — as their coach and general manager, they have been linked to Willis given their experience with him and Miami’s need at quarterback.

And Willis represents exactly what the Dolphins need: quarterbacking upside.

Let’s get the negatives out of the way. Miami is betting on a tiny sample — only three starts as a Packer. Those starts came with an elite offensive designer in Matt LaFleur. Willis didn’t even throw that much in those starts, and his first two seasons in Tennessee didn’t go well. Despite all that, I find Willis to be an incredibly compelling option.

His numbers were outrageous in Green Bay — an 86.3 QBR, 9.2 yards per dropback and a plus-7% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those stats would all rank first over the past two seasons among QBR qualifiers if Willis kept up that hot pace in a bigger sample.

And Willis also looked incredible in his Week 17 start against the Ravens, showing off his ability to throw with anticipation and on the run, change his arm angles and, of course, display his exceptional speed.

It is very hard to find a franchise quarterback in free agency, and I’m not saying that’s what Willis is, or even likely to be. But if it were to happen, it’d be a lot like this: a quarterback with draft status who took time to develop, then showed enough flashes in a sample that was small enough to get him to free agency. There’s a real chance here. And the Willis signing doesn’t even cost that much.

At $22.5 million per year, the contract is a bargain considering what Willis could become. But even more than for most deals, the most important part of this contract is the $45 million that’s fully guaranteed at signing. Because if Willis fails, that’s how much Miami will have to pay. And if he succeeds, they’ll end up needing to sign him to a new contract right away anyway.

Even with that guarantee, this is an incredible result relative to the alternatives. There is only one Fernando Mendoza in the draft, and the Dolphins are not going to get him. Instead of trotting out a veteran bridge quarterback, it makes sense to play for the upside. And Willis has tons of it.

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Raiders sign C Tyler Linderbaum

Terms: Three years, $81 million

Grade: C

Linderbaum just blew away the center market.

Most of the time when we talk about “market-setting” contracts, it’s simply a result of cap inflation. When it comes time for an upper-echelon player to sign, they get the most amount of money anyone at the position has gotten because the cap has gone up. But we can adjust for cap inflation, which means we can see when a player actually gets more than those before him.

Linderbaum is one of these scenarios. Since 2011, the highest average-per-year contract for a center — if we adjust to the 2026 cap environment — had been Frank Ragnow’s deal in 2021 at $22.3 million in today’s dollars. Linderbaum just signed for $27 million per year.

The Raiders absolutely needed to shore up their offensive line ahead of Fernando Mendoza‘s presumed arrival. In Linderbaum, who will turn 26 next month, they land a center in the prime of his career at a caliber that teams typically won’t find in free agency.

Linderbaum ranked second in pass block win rate last season and is generally regarded as a good run blocker even though his run block win rate hasn’t ever been quite as high (48th percentile over the past two seasons). He is widely considered among the top centers in the league, though I’d put him a tier below Creed Humphrey, the consensus best player at the best position.

But is Linderbaum worth $27 million per year? It’s hard to say yes given past precedent and the relative lack of importance of the position. On the other hand, the Raiders really needed to improve their line and there was a huge drop-off in alternatives.

I think that’s important, as the next-best center available in free agency is probably Cade Mays. Also, the Raiders also have more cap space than anyone. That doesn’t make inefficient spending good, but they need to spend some of that money. And supporting their soon-to-be rookie quarterback is an important part of their long-term development as an organization.

One team that probably feels great seeing Linderbaum’s number? The Bills, who locked in Connor McGovern at $13 million per year over the weekend. Comparatively, that’s an absolute steal.

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Rams sign CB Jaylen Watson

Terms: Three years, $54 million, per NFL Network

Grade: B+

Watson and Trent McDuffie are reunited again.

The Rams knew their weakness last season was their cornerbacks, so they haven’t held back in addressing the issue. They started by trading for McDuffie and handing him a huge contract, then they added Watson to bring the former Chiefs cornerbacks back together.

The issue is solved on paper. McDuffie is a premier corner and Watson has been a consistently strong player in Kansas City. In each of the past four seasons, Watson has allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap (average for an outside corner) or better. And that consistency is meaningful. I would much rather invest in a cornerback who plays well year after year than someone coming off a single great season given how erratic cornerback play can be from one year to the next.

There is also something to be said for having multiple strong cornerbacks. Pass coverage can be a weak link system, meaning that a single strong cornerback can help but if the player opposite him is poor in coverage, opponents still can pick on the weaker player. A defense with two good corners is much harder to defeat.

The Rams are doubling down on a very particular risk here — the Steve Spagnuolo factor. We’ve seen defensive backs have great success under Spagnuolo and struggle to reach that same level elsewhere. If that continues, it could cost the Rams double.

But $18 million really isn’t too big a price to pay here. It’s what I thought Watson would go for but it’s also a far cry from the $31 million McDuffie got this weekend. And the theoretical top (if we adjust for cap inflation) is just over $32 million.

Watson doesn’t have to be a star to pay off. And the Rams — who actually are among the teams with the most 2027 cap space right now, per OverTheCap.com — are trying to maximize their Super Bowl window before Matthew Stafford retires. I also don’t love a lot of the alternatives in the free agent market, so locking in the second part of the former Chiefs tandem makes sense to me.

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Panthers sign edge Jaelan Phillips

Terms: Four years, $120 million

Grade: B-

The Panthers needed edge help and decided to pay up to get it. They landed Phillips to improve a unit that ranked 24th in pass rush win rate and 32nd in run stop win rate last season.

Phillips should be an asset in both areas. The former Dolphin and Eagle has never had a double-digit sack season but clearly makes an impact as an edge rusher. Injuries derailed his early career in Miami: a torn Achilles in 2023 and a partially torn ACL in 2024 set him back. But he was effective again last season between Miami and Philadelphia and, critically, played 17 games.

Phillips ranked in the 92nd percentile in pressure rate and 55th percentile in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate at edge.

At 27 years old, the Panthers are getting Phillips in the prime of his career, and he fills a major need. Nic Scourton showed promise as a rookie, but they need an edge opposite him. D.J. Wonnum, who ranked in the 12th percentile in pass rush win rate at edge last season, is a free agent.

At $30 million per year, this is a big contract, but it’s not the top of the market. Accounting for cap inflation, Phillips’ deal is the 26th highest in terms of APY by an edge rusher since 2015, per OverTheCap.com.

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Chiefs sign RB Kenneth Walker III

Terms: Three years, $43.05 million with $28.7 million guaranteed

Grade: C+

The Chiefs got their running back. After getting lackluster play at the position last season, Kansas City opted to sign the top free agent running back, who also happens to be the Super Bowl MVP.

In Walker, the Chiefs gain explosive upside on every run that they simply did not have last year. Even though he was sharing the workload with Zach Charbonnet, Walker had the sixth-most runs of 10-plus yards last season (33), which is where he shines. And of course, his play in the postseason raised his value quite a bit.

In the regular season, Walker recorded 39 rush yards over expected and generated 0 first downs over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But in the playoffs Walker recorded 79 rush yards over expected and eight (!) first downs over expected in what was legitimately an excellent run.

He clearly fills a need for Kansas City, and you can easily understand why they want him. I do think there are some drawbacks. First, the regular-season numbers were good but not exceptional, and I’m wary of over-indexing on the playoffs.

Second, while Walker’s ability as a runner is not questioned, that’s not the only job of a back. And the Seahawks made their preference for Charbonnet on passing downs quite clear — Walker was on the field only for 20% of third-and-longs in the regular season. And third, running back is one of the least important positions in football, and the Chiefs are opting to spend here.

The $14.3 million APY puts him right in between two 2024 contracts —Josh Jacobs‘ free agency deal with the Packers and Saquon Barkley‘s original deal with the Eagles. While I wouldn’t make this deal myself, Kansas City must find a way to jump-start its offense again. The most important part of that will come in the passing game, but a better running back could help.

A hidden upside — signing Walker probably takes the Chiefs out of contention to select Jeremiyah Love with the ninth overall pick, which would have been a huge unforced error considering how little surplus value a running back provides as a top-10 pick relative to other positions.

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Colts re-sign WR Alec Pierce

Terms: Four years, $116 million

Grade: B-

The top wide receiver on the market is staying in Indianapolis. This looked dicey when the Colts put the transition tag on Daniel Jones, thus allowing Pierce to hit the open market. He was out there for mere minutes before inking a $29 million per year deal to re-sign.

Pierce turned into a legitimately good player last season. He still streaks downfield more than almost anyone — his rate of deep fade and go routes ranked in the 97th percentile, his air yards per target ranked in the 100th percentile and his depth three seconds into a route also ranked in the 100th percentile. But he’s a far cry from someone who just takes the top off a defense to help his teammates — he produced in a huge way, too.

Pierce recorded 2.2 yards per route run (though only 1.7 vs. man) last season. His completed air yards per route was 1.8, which also ranked in the 97th percentile among wide receivers. What he does well is bring in more catches than usual for the types of throws he’s targeted on, as evidenced by his 74 catch score in ESPN’s receiver scores and his 7.7 receptions over expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

And he did it without top-tier quarterback play. No matter what you think of Jones, Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard, they aren’t quarterbacks who are expected to artificially boost a deep threat’s numbers. And even though Pierce broke out in 2025, he still recorded 1.9 yards per route run in 2024, which reduces the risk of him being a one-year wonder.

I do think there is some risk here. Contested catch ability is less stable than openness from year-to-year, and Pierce didn’t score as high (32) in the latter category.

The contract isn’t quite as large as it sounds, as $29 million per year puts Pierce roughly on par with DJ Moore‘s 2022 extension in Carolina, Chris Godwin Jr.’s extension with the Buccaneers in 2022 and DeVonta Smith‘s extension with the Eagles in 2024 after adjusting for cap inflation. The deal is well below the top of the market for receivers (which is over $40 million per year), as it should be. Still, it’s a million or two stronger than I thought it would be. More important, it’s perhaps a couple million more than it needed to be.

I thought the Colts made a mistake using the transition tag on Jones instead of the franchise tag on Pierce. I have a hard time believing any team would have been excited to throw a ton of money at Jones knowing he will likely miss a fair bit of time and/or be less effective in 2026 while Pierce clearly had a commanding market. Had the Colts kept control of him via the franchise tag, however, I believe they would have saved money on both him and Jones while retaining both.

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Cowboys trade for DE Gary

Cowboys get: Edge Rashan Gary

Packers get: 2027 fourth-round pick

Cowboys grade: D+

Packers grade: A

After missing out on Maxx Crosby (a good thing, in my view), the Cowboys opted for another edge rusher trade — albeit a player in a totally different tier. Gary is heading to Dallas to join up with old teammate Kenny Clark and bolster the Cowboys’ pass rush in the post-Micah Parsons era.

The cost for Dallas is steep relative to the player they are getting. Gary was once viewed as a very promising young pass rusher. And in 2022, he looked like a player who was ready to fulfill that potential, delivering a 23% pass rush win rate at edge and 6.0 sacks in nine games before tearing his ACL. His numbers since then have never reached the same pace. And last season, despite playing with Parsons, Gary recorded just an 8% pass rush win rate at edge (18th percentile) and a 9% pressure rate (37th percentile), along with 7.5 sacks. His run stop win rate at edge was in the 60th percentile.

Gary, 28, can be a useful player for Dallas. But here’s the problem: The Cowboys dealt away a fourth-round pick for the right to pay Gary $19.5 million in cash this year, per OverTheCap (he’s owed $22.5 million in non-guaranteed money in 2027). That’s more than Khalil Mack just re-signed for on a one-year deal. And while I’m guessing at contract size here, I’d much rather pay Boye Mafe $21 million than Gary $19.5 million — even before thinking about adding a draft pick in, too.

For the Packers, this is a boon. They might well have been prepared to cut Gary given his deal, so to find a fourth-round pick from Dallas is superb business. Edge rusher is a need now, but getting a return to not pay Gary what he was owed is a win.

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Jets land S Fitzpatrick from Dolphins

Jets get: S Minkah Fitzpatrick

Dolphins get: 2026 seventh-round pick

Jets grade: B-

Dolphins grade: C+

A rebuilding AFC East team dealt one of its veteran players away as it tries to save money while setting up for its next contending run, perhaps in 2027 or beyond. That part makes sense. The surprise? The veteran is going to another AFC East team that also doesn’t have much hope of contending next season. Fitzpatrick is heading to the Jets in a deal involving minor draft compensation and a new contract for the safety.

Fitzpatrick was an obvious trade candidate at the deadline last year, but Miami opted to hold onto him in what now looks like an error, given the return it just landed. He was dealt from the Steelers back to the Dolphins last offseason and moved from a deep safety role into playing much closer to the action, often as a nickel or box safety. His average depth from the line of scrimmage at the time of snap dropped from 12.6 yards to 6.8, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Fitzpatrick helped a lacking secondary in Miami and can do the same in New York. Safety coverage performance is difficult to quantify, but when Fitzpatrick was not playing safety (so, mostly as a nickel), he allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap, which is roughly average. His run-stopping numbers were poor, however; his run stop win rate ranked in the third percentile among safeties with at least 50 plays with a run stop win or loss. Fitzpatrick had just a 2.1% run stop rate when playing nickel, box safety or linebacker, well below 6.2% average for defensive backs with 100 snaps or more in those spots.

The Jets had a hole at safety with Andre Cisco and Tony Adams both free agents. But the big question here: Does a move like this fit with the Jets’ timeline? Broadly, no. Fitzpatrick is 29, and the Jets are not contenders right now. They really need to focus their resources on players who will help in 2027 and beyond (or save them for 2027). But the draft compensation was also less than I expected. This all hinges on the contract the Jets gave Fitzpatrick.

How much money will the Jets pay him if they cut him a year from now? The grade assumes around $15 million — close to what he was slated to make on his old deal. I can understand a move like that for a veteran to hold together a young secondary, and this is probably preferable to signing one of the top free agent safeties on the market. But if New York guaranteed more than that, I think this will be a tougher move to justify.

For the Dolphins, it makes sense to trade Fitzpatrick, but I’m dinging them for not dealing him sooner. Given his contract, I think at the deadline they could have earned more draft compensation than what they got now, and they functionally gained nothing from holding on to him.

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Raiders trade for CB Johnson

Raiders get: CB Taron Johnson, 2026 seventh-round pick

Bills get: 2026 sixth-round pick

Raiders grade: B-

Bills grade: B

Two days after the Bills announced they were cutting their longtime nickel corner, they found a trade partner instead. The Raiders are acquiring Johnson and a 2026 seventh-round pick for a sixth-round pick in this year’s draft.

Johnson, who will turn 30 in July, has played the slot for Buffalo for the past eight seasons, appearing in at least 249 coverage snaps in each of those years and at least 320 in all but his 2018 rookie campaign. His best season was probably in 2023, when he allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap (better than average) and a career-best minus-14 EPA allowed. That season, he was recognized as a second-team All-Pro.

His numbers haven’t been quite as good in Buffalo since then: 1.3 and 1.2 yards per coverage snap — now a little worse than average — in 2024 and 2025, respectively. His EPA allowed was positive in 2024 but again negative in 2025 (minus-5). Why were the Bills planning to release him? They’re changing defensive schemes under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard and probably felt Johnson wasn’t worth the contract likely needed to keep him ($8.8 million, per OverTheCap).

But the Raiders felt otherwise. His contract also calls for $10 million in 2027 cash, though none of the money this year or next is guaranteed. Would Johnson have made that much in free agency? Perhaps. Either way, the Raiders paid a tiny amount of draft capital to ensure they landed him at that price. The Raiders are swimming in cap space … and roster needs. Safety Jeremy Chinn played more nickel than anyone else in Las Vegas last season and is on a reasonable contract, but he has positional flexibility, so the acquisition of Johnson could mean the Raiders move him around elsewhere more often.

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Packers trade for LB Franklin

Packers get: LB Zaire Franklin

Colts get: DT Colby Wooden

Packers grade: B

Colts grade: B

Two days after ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Colts were seeking to deal Franklin in order to help get under the salary cap, Indianapolis found a trade partner in Green Bay. The Packers added Franklin via a player-for-player trade involving Wooden.

Franklin, who will turn 30 this summer, presumably will slot in next to Edgerrin Cooper at linebacker, with Quay Walker departing in free agency. Franklin’s deal calls for $7 million in cash in 2026, which the Colts will save and the Packers will take on. His contract also includes a $9 million non-guaranteed salary in 2027.

Franklin is most known for his 2024 season in which he led the NFL in tackles (173). That’s not a particularly great indicator of linebacker skill on its own and probably overstates his contribution that season, but he was certainly a solid player that year. His metrics took a step back last season. In 2025, Franklin’s run stop win rate dropped to the 28th percentile (down from 59th the year prior), along with a 28th percentile tackle rate among linebackers and a worse-than-average missed tackle rate, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

There are a number of linebacker options in free agency, though many of them might end up being a few million more in salary. Franklin brings some risk if his play last season was a signal of decline, but if the Packers believe 2025 was an outlier, then he becomes a player who fills a need with a very reasonably priced contract.

Wooden is a nose tackle who played 52% of snaps for Green Bay last season. He figures to be a depth player for the Colts, who already have Grover Stewart at nose tackle. Wooden, a 2023 fourth-round pick, is in the last year of his contract, which will cost the Colts just over $1 million. Stewart is in the final year of his contract, too.

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Ravens trade for DE Crosby

Ravens get: Edge Maxx Crosby

Raiders get: 2026 first-round pick, 2027 first-round pick

Ravens grade: C

Raiders grade: A

I did not think the Ravens would be the team that dealt for Crosby. And I also did not think it was going to cost this much.

I want to be clear about this: Crosby is an exceptional player who, even though he is considered a star, is perhaps even a little underrated. He has recorded double-digit sacks in three of the past four years, is a five-time Pro Bowler and has played in 110 career regular-season games out of a possible 117 over his seven-year career.

His pass rush win rate is slightly lower than one might expect for a star: 17.2% over the past four years at edge, which is in the 79th percentile. But at the same time, he has 222 pass-rush wins over that span — the fourth most in the league — because he never comes off the field. Crosby has played at least 94% of defensive snaps in games played over the past four years. He is also excellent against the run, which is part of the reason he never leaves the field and also what makes him remarkable given his aforementioned pass-rushing chops.

The Ravens evidently felt they had to do something to try to break through and take advantage of their time with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. But it’s a surprise on two fronts. First, it’s unlike the usually restrained Ravens, who are known for compensatory picks rather than dealing away first-round draft capital. It’s also a team that hasn’t typically prioritized star edge rushers, choosing instead to focus on the secondary and rotate in talent at edge through the years. But Crosby fills a clear need.

Kyle Van Noy, Dre’Mont Jones and David Ojabo are pending free agents. That had left Mike Green and Tavius Robinson at the top of the depth chart at edge. Clearly, Baltimore had to add someone. And the Ravens opted for an elite player in Crosby.

So was it worth it? Despite everything I wrote above, I don’t think so. Crosby is a star who might be worth around $40 million per year on the open market. His salary-laden contract that has four years left will cost Baltimore $30 million in 2026 and $29 million in 2027. That surplus value — the difference between his market value and what Baltimore has to pay him — is real and helps the Ravens’ cause here. But the surplus value of two first-round picks is almost certainly higher. First-round picks are no guarantee to hit, but when they do, they result in plus-players at highly discounted prices for four years (with a fifth year of team control). And Baltimore’s first-round pick that they just dealt is earlier than normal at No. 14.

Crosby will turn 29 prior to next season. That means we should expect he’s in the tail end of his prime; he should have a couple very good years left but decline could start to set in soon. He won’t be the same forever for Baltimore. The Ravens are better today than they were yesterday, and the fact that they are Super Bowl contenders — and increased their chance to win it by making this move — helps. But there is a cost here that they’ll pay for years to come.

And the history of teams trading two first-round picks for non-quarterbacks is not great. Khalil Mack, Laremy Tunsil and Jamal Adams come to mind there. Jalen Ramsey worked out better. Micah Parsons and Sauce Gardner remain to be seen, but the team that traded each away is probably feeling better about those deals at the moment. As tempting a move as it is to make — and fully understanding Crosby could be the player who puts the Ravens over the top — I have a hard time thinking this is the optimal move for Baltimore.

For the Raiders, this is about the best result they could have imagined. Their time with Crosby had run its course, and I truly thought they had missed their opportunity to maximize their return for him. I thought they might get a first- and a third-round pick. Instead, it’s two firsts (including No. 14 this year) — a superb return. And the fact that Crosby’s deal is almost all salary means they get to offload the money owed to Baltimore.

Even with Crosby and Fernando Mendoza, whom the Raiders are expected to select with the No. 1 pick in the draft, Las Vegas was not going to be contending this season. But by dealing Crosby now, the Raiders can jump-start their rebuild to create a roster around Mendoza that can support the rookie QB. It’s a worthwhile move and then some.

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Bears acquire C Bradbury from Patriots

Bears get: C Garrett Bradbury

Patriots get: 2027 fifth-round pick

Bears grade: B-

Patriots grade: B+

When Drew Dalman suddenly retired earlier this week, the Bears were thrust into the center market. They opted to address the need via trade instead of waiting to see how the free agent market would shake out.

Bradbury is an experienced center, albeit one with a middling track record. Over the past two seasons combined between the Vikings and Patriots, Bradbury ranked in the 41st percentile in pass block win rate at center and 52nd percentile in run block win rate. That’s fine, but a step down from Dalman.

Bradbury is cheap — he’ll cost $4.7 million this year but is a free agent after 2026. But for the Bears to give up a fifth-round pick for a single season of him is not trivial and seems like a slight overpay. I can understand not wanting to dish out $20 million plus for Tyler Linderbaum in free agency, but could Chicago have afforded Connor McGovern? Or Cade Mays? Those players would not have cost a draft pick.

This trade likely means 2025 third-round pick Jared Wilson will take over at center for the Patriots. In 13 games at left guard last season, Wilson recorded a pass block win rate in the 58th percentile and a run block win rate in the 16th percentile. Having a young successor already in place makes this a nice return for Bradbury, especially since he is on the last year of his deal.

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Chargers sign C Tyler Biadasz

The deal: Three years, $30 million

Grade: B

It was a bit of a surprise when the Commanders cut Biadasz in late February. He had been a good player for them and was slated to make only $8.3 million. It turns out the market thought he was worth a little more than that.

Our metrics indicate that Biadasz was solid last season, ranking in the 57th and 52nd percentile in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. But that was down from the season before, when he was in the 57th (PBWR) and 77th (RBWR) percentiles.

Biadasz fills a clear need for the Chargers. Their previous center, Bradley Bozeman, recently announced his retirement but even if he hadn’t, Los Angeles was going to need to find a replacement after Bozeman ranked second-to-last in pass block win rate at the position.

This does close the door on what seemed like a fun and logical free agent-team pairing — Tyler Linderbaum to the Chargers. But from Los Angeles’ perspective, there’s no guarantee that Linderbaum will be available come Monday, and spending $10 million per year on Biadasz — instead of somewhere in the mid-$20 millions that Linderbaum might require — is probably more responsible given that center is a non-premium position. Signing Biadasz now ensures the Chargers don’t find themselves without a seat in a game of center musical chairs later.

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Bills land WR Moore from Bears

Bills get: WR DJ Moore, 2026 fifth-round pick

Bears get: 2026 second-round pick

Bills grade: D

Bears grade: A

A year ago, Brandon Beane got testy and mocked critics of the Bills’ lack of wide receiver investment in a radio appearance. Eleven months later, it seems he has changed his mind given his choice to overpay for Moore with a two-five swap.

Moore looked like a likely trade candidate heading into the offseason after he had failed to really produce in Ben Johnson’s offense and appeared to show lackadaisical route-running effort on what ended up being Chicago’s last offensive play of the season, a Caleb Williams overtime interception in Chicago’s divisional-round loss to the Rams.

In his first season as a Bear in 2023, Moore looked like one of the NFL’s best receivers. He delivered 2.5 yards per route run, which increased to an almost unbelievable 3.4 yards per route run vs. man coverage. His 85 overall score in ESPN’s receiver scores was tied for fourth among all wide receivers. His play earned him an extension with Chicago. But since that season, the production has not been close to the same.

His yards per route run and overall score dropped to 1.6 and 57, respectively, in 2024. And then in 2025, his first season with Johnson, those numbers fell even further, to 1.3 and 45. Essentially Moore, who turns 29 next month, produced like a below-average player.

Moore’s aforementioned extension is just getting started, and he will cost the Bills $24.5 million in cash this year if the deal is not altered. Plus, remaining on the roster will fully guarantee $15.5 million of his 2027 salary, per OverTheCap.com. Then, in a bizarre decision, the Bills opted to also fully guarantee $15.5 million of Moore’s 2028 salary, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

Dealing Moore was probably a pretty easy choice for Chicago. Their future in the receiving game is Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland. And they get to offload a substantial amount of guaranteed money that they can redistribute to other parts of the roster that need help.

Assuming the Bears didn’t take on any additional money, I think this part is sort of remarkable: Moore’s stock seems to have fallen precipitously since signing his extension that had a $27.5 million average per year. Despite that, the Bills will be taking on only a slightly cheaper contract: $90 million over four years ($22.5 million APY) though with all the guarantees this will be a one-year deal for $40 million, two years for $64.5 million or three for $73.5 million if they choose to end it early. Not only that, but the Bills gave up what ESPN’s draft pick values would consider a late-third round pick to do it.

In my view, that makes this a much better result for the Bears than I would have expected heading into the offseason and makes the deal worth criticizing for the Bills.

You can understand how the Bills got to this point. They have an all-world quarterback but have failed to surround him with enough receiving talent and wanted to rectify that issue. And there’s some history here: Moore played for Joe Brady in Carolina in 2020 and 2021 and was fairly productive, with 2.4 and 1.9 yards per route run in those seasons, respectively.

There are alternative options in free agency like Mike Evans, Alec Pierce, Rashid Shaheed or Romeo Doubs that would not have immediately cost Buffalo a pick (though with the Bills’ tight cap situation and some pending free agents, signings like that might have cost them a comp pick). There’s also no guarantee on how much those free agents would have cost, though Moore is pricey himself.

Ultimately I think the Bills’ instinct at wide receiver is correct. But to pay real draft capital for the right to take on what is likely an overpriced contract and add extra guarantees is far from optimal.

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Chiefs trade CB McDuffie to Rams

Rams get: CB Trent McDuffie

Chiefs get: Rams’ 2026 first-round pick (No. 29), 2026 fifth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick, 2027 third-round pick

Rams grade: C+

Chiefs grade: A-

Cornerback was the weakness of the Rams’ defense last season. So Les Snead did what Les Snead does — address the problem by adding a star via trade.

And McDuffie is a star. When I sought feedback for my 100-player MVP ballot a year ago, folks in the league told me that McDuffie was in the mix for the best cornerback in the NFL that season. Over the course of his four-year career he has allowed 0.9 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and has never had a season where he fared worse than the average for a cornerback in that category (1.1). That high-level consistency is rare at corner, a notoriously volatile position.

McDuffie, 25, allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap last season along with a 16.9% target rate (slightly higher than average and the highest of McDuffie’s career). He comes with inside-out flexibility, having spent most of the past two seasons out wide but a substantial amount of time in 2023 at nickel.

You can understand why the Rams are making this deal. They have a 38-year-old quarterback in Matthew Stafford coming off an MVP season and don’t want to waste their current championship window. They saw the opportunity to add a star in the prime of his career to fill a major need and took it. Obviously, they are better now with McDuffie on the team. And there is no shutdown corner available in free agency.

But the cost is substantial. The addition of the other picks to the late first-rounder move the value up to a mid first-rounder at minimum (and there’s a good argument they gave up more than that), depending on the relative valuation of those picks.

The surplus value going back to Kansas City is large. Draft picks are never a guarantee, but when teams hit on them they end up with players on undervalued contracts with four (or five) years of team control.

By contrast, while McDuffie is currently a value for 2026 at $13.6 million, my assumption is that the Rams will extend him at something akin to a market rate for a player among the top cornerbacks. In that case, they are giving up a package that includes a first-round pick for the right to pay McDuffie. This format of trade is always hard to justify for the acquiring team given that fact. And a trade like this for a cornerback is particularly scary given how wild the swings at that position can be from season to season.

I am more sympathetic to the acquiring team than I usually, though, given the closing-window argument and the lack of an obvious alternative. But I would not have made this deal if I was running the Rams.

For the Chiefs, this continues a pattern of letting corners walk out the door under the assumption that they’ll be able to draft and develop players who can perform under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The history here — most notably L’Jarius Sneed‘s lack of success in Tennessee and the Chiefs’ ability to be fine without the departed corners — is another reason for the Rams to be wary. Any Chiefs cornerback probably comes with a drop-off risk once they leave Spagnuolo. We’ll see how far they want to push that strategy with impending free agent Jaylen Watson — will they let him walk, too?

Either way, Kansas City must reload its roster. As of this writing the Chiefs are more than $6 million over the 2026 cap and are below average in terms of 2027 cap room. But they need a new infusion of talent, particularly to help an offense which has been quixotically stuck in the mud considering that Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback.

The extra draft capital will let the team get younger and add players while keeping costs low. And if the Chiefs truly believe in their ability to keep replenishing at corner, then that makes a deal like this even more rational.

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Lions trade RB Montgomery to the Texans

Texans get: RB David Montgomery

Lions get: G Juice Scruggs, 2026 fourth-round draft pick, 2027 seventh-round pick

Texans grade: D

Lions grade: A

At some point this offseason, the Texans needed to add a running back to team up with second-year man Woody Marks. They opted to do that early by acquiring Montgomery. Houston’s running game was abysmal in 2025, ranking 31st in EPA per designed carry. Their running back play wasn’t ideal, but the biggest culprit of that poor performance was an offensive line that ranked 32nd in run block win rate. Though Marks averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, he still recorded 31 rush yards over expected, another sign that the offensive line was the problem.

In Montgomery, the Texans acquire a reliable veteran who recorded 125 rush yards over expected with Detroit in 2025, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But his role has steadily decreased in recent years with the emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs. In the 14 games Montgomery played in 2023, he was featured on 48% of snaps and carried the ball 219 games. By 2025, those numbers dropped to 37% and 158, respectively, despite playing in 17 games. Montgomery’s receiving work was also limited because of Gibbs — as his 24 receptions last season were nowhere close to the 54 he once caught with the Bears in 2020.

Montgomery’s contract is reasonable: It’ll cost Houston $6 million in cash this year (and $9 million nonguaranteed next year) if left untouched. But that does not mean this was a smart acquisition. An aging (29 years old in June), early-down back whose prior team had been phasing him out is not worth spending real resources on. It surprises me that Detroit was able to lure a four-seven swap here since the Texans could have found comparable expected production for far less.

Scruggs is a reclamation project throw-in for Detroit. The 2023 second-round pick has bounced around the interior of Houston’s offensive line. At guard, he has been in the 24th and 26th percentiles in pass block win rate and run block win rate, respectively. The results at center in 2024 were even worse, as he was third percentile in both metrics. Scruggs has one year left on his rookie deal, but the draft picks should be more than enough here for the Lions. They can use that capital to find another running back to complement Gibbs late in the draft or find a low-cost veteran in free agency. It’s as easy a win as the Lions will find all offseason.

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Texans trade OT Howard to Browns

Browns get: OT Tytus Howard

Texans get: 2026 fifth-round pick

Browns grade: D+

Texans grade: A-

One starting offensive lineman down, four more to go for the Browns. In acquiring Howard, an offensive tackle who has occasionally kicked inside to guard in his seven NFL seasons, Cleveland starts the massive rebuild of its offensive line. But was it worth it? I have a hard time seeing how.

With six offensive line free agents, the Browns are going to look significantly different in the trenches in 2026, and they’re right to jump on this right away. There’s a good chance the Browns will have a young, developing player at quarterback — be it Shedeur Sanders or someone else — and it’s critical to keep that player upright.

Howard’s exact role is unknown due to his flexibility and how the Browns’ address their other holes upfront, but right tackle seems like the safest bet since it’s where he has most frequently played.

Howard ranked in the 24th percentile in pass block win rate at tackle and the 31st percentile in run block win rate at tackle last season. He was also below average in both in 2024. That hasn’t always been the case — Howard ranked in the top 10 overall in pass block win rate at tackle in 2021 and 2022. But we’re several seasons removed from that, and he scored poorly in run blocking in each of those seasons.

So the Browns are likely getting a below-average starter. And he isn’t cheap. Howard is slated to make $17.5 million in 2026 (the final year of his deal) and is now signing a two-year, $45 million extension, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The Browns sat at less than $1 million under the 2026 cap prior to this deal, per OverTheCap.com, though their cap obligations lighten quite a bit in 2027. But is this where they want to spend their resources, dealing a fifth-round pick to pay what might be an over-market deal for a below-average starter? That’s not how I’d want to kick off the offseason.

This continues a recent pattern of offensive line turnover for the Texans, but I don’t mind this move for them. Houston needs better blocking, both to protect quarterback C.J. Stroud and generate a running game to support him. It was last in the NFL (32nd) in run block win rate, 30th in pass block win rate and 26th in yards gained before contact on running back rushes last season.

Howard played both right tackle and left guard for the Texans, who have plenty of open spots along the offensive line, with both Ed Ingram and Trent Brown set to be free agents. They’ll need to add offensive line help at some point and must set aside money to pay edge rusher Will Anderson Jr — and probably Stroud, too. So getting a fifth-round pick to not pay Howard seems like good business.

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Jets trade edge Johnson to Titans for DT Sweat

Jets get: DT T’Vondre Sweat

Titans get: Edge Jermaine Johnson

Jets grade: A-

Titans grade: C-

For all their faults, the Jets came out of last year’s trade deadline with two of the very best deals in that period. While hardly on the same scale, they kicked off the 2026 trade season with another shrewd move in swapping out Johnson for Sweat in a one-for-one swap.

The last of the Jets’ three 2022 first-round picks, Johnson put together one decent sack season in 2023, with 7.5 sacks en route to a Pro Bowl nod. That came while playing for current Titans head coach Robert Saleh, which I assume is a critical factor in why this deal was made.

But Johnson managed only 5.5 sacks over his other three seasons in New York, though he played just three games in 2024 due to an Achilles injury. Advanced pass-rushing metrics have not been kind to Johnson in his four-year career. His career pass rush win rate is only 8.4% (8.9% last season), while the average for a starting edge in that span is 15.6%.

Sweat, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a solid starting nose tackle for Tennessee. He should help the Jets’ run defense and provide some pass rush from the nose. While his 6.5% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average for the position, it’s not bad considering where he lines up. He’ll join a Jets interior group that includes Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs.

As for Johnson, the Titans need help at edge. But that need doesn’t make it worth the cost.

Johnson is playing on his fifth-year option and will cost Tennessee $13.4 million, per OverTheCap. By contrast, Sweat has two years left on his rookie deal and will cost the Jets just $1.6 and $2.1 million in each of those years, respectively. Sweat is also younger and, in my view, has a better chance to be a plus contributor than Johnson. That makes this deal well worth it for New York, especially considering the Jets will get a player with another year of team control for less money.